Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erin, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted in association with a disturbance located about 75 miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coastline. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Bucci